With just a day to go before the highly anticipated African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson election on February 15-16, 2025, Raila Odinga is emerging as a formidable frontrunner, commanding the backing of at least 28 African nations and securing public endorsements from 19 heads of state.
As a seasoned Pan-Africanist, former Kenyan Prime Minister, and a relentless champion for democracy, Odinga’s candidacy signals a potential power shift within the AU—one that could redefine the continent’s approach to governance, economic unity, and geopolitical influence.
The Contenders and the Stakes
Raila Odinga faces stiff competition from Mohamoud Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar, but his growing support base suggests he is the leader to watch.
The election, held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, follows a secret ballot system where a two-thirds majority is required to secure victory.
Should no candidate meet the threshold in the initial round, multiple rounds will follow until a winner is determined.
If the deadlock persists beyond the third round, the election will be suspended—leaving Africa’s leadership in limbo.
The Political Landscape: Who’s In, Who’s Out
Odinga enjoys backing from key regional powerhouses, including:
🇰🇪 Kenya | 🇺🇬 Uganda | 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 🇸🇳 Senegal | 🇿🇲 Zambia | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 🇩🇿 Algeria | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 🇧🇮 Burundi | 🇪🇷 Eritrea and many more.
However, six African nations—Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Niger, and Gabon—are barred from voting due to AU sanctions linked to political instability, a factor that could significantly influence the outcome.
Raila Odinga: A Leadership Battle That Could Reshape Africa’s Future
Raila Odinga’s push for AU Chair comes at a critical juncture when Africa faces pressing issues: the rise of military coups, economic crises, and global diplomatic shifts.
His Pan-African credentials and decades of political experience could provide a strong and unifying voice for the continent.
Will Africa rally behind Odinga’s vision, or will the AU election expose deep geopolitical divisions? The countdown is on.
